Lessons from modelling during a pandemic and for pandemic preparedness #

Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths

12:50 Monday in 2Q50/51.

Part of the How to be better prepared for a future pandemic: lessons learned from COVID-19, mpox and the four historic influenza pandemics session.

Abstract #

Mathematical modelling has been widely used throughout the COVID-19 epidemic in England. This talk will discuss how my work has contributed to producing scientific evidence at important policy junctions in England. I will discuss the application of Covasim - an agent-based model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission and interventions - to model different strategies of reopening schools in September 2020, and again following the Alpha wave in early 2021. I will also discuss how the model was used to evaluate different reopening stages in early 2021, ahead of the delta wave, and how good a predictor was Covasim, in late 2021, of the timing and size of the Omicron wave in early 2022. Additionally, I will highlight the application of the model to ongoingly generate weekly epidemic metrics - reproduction number R and growth rate r. Finally, I will discuss lessons learned from my modelling at pace during the pandemic, and highlight areas of research that I have developed over the last year based on this learning.