Mathematical and statistical modelling of the spread of tree diseases and invasive pests through UK forests #

Laura Wadkin

14:50 Monday in 3Q16.

Part of the Mathematical ecology session.

Abstract #

The loss of biodiversity due to the spread of destructive tree diseases and invasive pests within our native forests is having an enormous environmental, economic, and social impact. Enhancing biosecurity is a key priority, through the control of existing diseases and pests, and by building forest resilience against new ones. Thus, we are working in collaboration with multiple forestry partners to develop mathematical models to deepen our understanding of the fundamental behaviours of key pests and pathogens, act as predictive tools for forecasting, and to explore different control strategies. Broadly, we use a combination of partial differential equations, agent-based modelling, and statistical inference techniques. This talk will present an overview of the collaborative work to date, including a case study example of the oak processionary moth infestation in London.