Modelling and inference in public health #

Organisers: Eduard Campillo-Funollet and James van Yperen

Minisymposium abstract

Mathematical models are prominent in public health services and healthcare. Examples include queueing models, nowcasting and forecasting for demand and capacity planning, systems modelling, and vaccination strategies for epidemiology, but also studies data analysis for diagnostics and treatment efficacy. In this minisymposium, we will focus on derivation of models used in public health and healthcare, how they incorporate available data and different types of uses. To provide robust and reliable outcomes, we calibrate models with the available data, for instance to model a local population or individual patients. However, estimating model parameters is often challenging, posing problems at the interface between applied mathematics and statistics. As well as novel models, we look to explore different methods that researchers have used to overcome this barrier, the use of statistical methods for missing data and data integration.

Bayesian multilevel modelling for prediction and uncertainty estimation of motor progression in Parkinson’s disease #

Tanja Zerenner, Michael Lawton, Anahita Nodehi, Donald Grosset & the Tracking Parkinson’s team, Michele Hu & the OPDC-Discovery team, Yoav Ben-Shlomo

13:30 Tuesday in 2Q50/51.

The role of large connected components in sexual networks for HIV spreading in Sub-Saharan Africa #

Francesco Di Lauro

13:50 Tuesday in 2Q50/51.

How data-driven, mechanistic modelling is being used to support elimination of African sleeping sickness #

Kat S Rock

14:10 Tuesday in 2Q50/51.

Combining models to generate consensus nowcasts for the COVID-19 epidemic status in England #

Harrison Manley, Josie Park, Luke Bevan, Alberto Sanchez-Marroquin, Gabriel Danelian, Thomas Bayley, Veronica Bowman, Thomas Maishman, Thomas Finnie, Andre Charlett, Nicholas A Watkins, Johanna Hutchinson, Steven Riley, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, Sebastian Funk, Paul Birrell, Daniela De Angelis, Matt Keeling, Lorenzo Pellis, Marc Baguelin, Graeme Ackland, Jonathan Read, Christopher Jewell, Robert Challen

14:30 Tuesday in 2Q50/51.

The observational model: a data-driven parameter estimation technique for dynamical systems #

James Van Yperen, Eduard Campillo-Funollet, Anotida Madzvamuse

14:50 Tuesday in 2Q50/51.