How to be better prepared for a future pandemic: lessons learned from COVID-19, mpox and the four historic influenza pandemics #

Organisers: Ben Swallow and Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths

Minisymposium abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical and statistical modelling has been very useful in informing and advising policy decision making. Utilising existing methods across different disciplines and furnishing them with novel adaptations has been an important part of the pandemic response over the last three years. Additionally, new datasets have been collected in the UK and worldwide and used as part of the epidemic response. Combining these, highlighting the new knowledge and how to be better prepared for the new pandemic, is an important learning from COVID-19 and the previous four influenza pandemics. This minisimposium aims to untangle this marrying different epidemic response methods and data to illustrate how these have been useful and how we need to improve them in future.

Within the minisymposium, we will explore the impact of Test-Trace-Isolate and different immunisation strategies against COVID-19, explore the role of progressive transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in sustaining the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluate whether wastewater data can be a good indicator for pandemic surveillance. Additionally, we will discuss the key aspects that need to be considered to prevent a future influenza pandemic, discuss the factors that lead to winter pressures from seasonal influenza and how to control these and explore the role of closed and semi-closed populations (eg schools, workplaces, care-homw) in sustaining a growing epidemic.

Importance of progressive transmissibility of emerging variants in sustaining the COVID-19 epidemic in England #

Ben Swallow

11:10 Monday in 2Q50/51.

The interplay between population susceptibility and vaccine effectiveness control the timing and size of an emerging influenza wave #

Edwin Van Leeuwen

11:30 Monday in 2Q50/51.

Considerations for informing Test, Trace and support to Isolate (TTI) intervention design following the experience of COVID-19 #

Elizabeth Fearon

11:50 Monday in 2Q50/51.

The role of enclosed population in an epidemic #

Thomas Finnie

12:10 Monday in 2Q50/51.

WasteWater as a pandemic surveillance tool #

Zhou Fang

12:30 Monday in 2Q50/51.

Lessons from modelling during a pandemic and for pandemic preparedness #

Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths

12:50 Monday in 2Q50/51.